Cong will need to have heart of a big brother for 2024 elections

India’s grand-old-party - the Congress - needs to have heart of a big brother to make sacrifices in the political crucial states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi, Bihar and Maharashtra for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at bay.

To its credit, the Congress has thus far managed to hold two big opposition meetings - one in Bihar and the other one in Karnataka. The highlight of these meetings was the renaming of United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’ or INDIA.

The Congress had contested on 421 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and was in a direct fight with the BJP at 373 seats. BJP had contested the 2019 polls on 435 seats while rest of the seats was contested by its alliance partners.

However, the grand old party could manage to win only 52 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections despite former party Chief Rahul Gandhi running an aggressive campaign against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Four years later, in 2023, the Congress has brought 26 opposition parties together to take on the BJP-led NDA government after suffering two back-to-back massive defeats in the Lok Sabha elections.

These parties include those who have a strong base in some of states while others don’t have any MLAs or MPs in the state assemblies or the Parliament.

A party leader, who was part of both the opposition meetings in Bihar and Karnataka, said that bringing the 26 opposition parties together is to save democracy and the Constitution which is under attack.

He said that the idea is to stop the split in the vote of the opposition parties against the BJP.

He said that all these parties have come together to stop the juggernaut of the BJP-led NDA which managed to win 353 seats out of the 542 seats. The BJP had won 303 seats in 2019 polls.

The party leader said that a detailed discussion is going on in the party looking at the seats it contested directly against the BJP in 2019 and it will still try to fight on at least on 400 seats across the country.

Meanwhile, a party source said that despite posing for a happy picture after the meeting, the road ahead is not much smooth as it requires a lot of serious talks which involves sacrifice in the states where the regional parties are its main rivals.

He said that the optics of posing for photos together will only work if the parties are ready for sacrifices, adjustments and seat sharing with bigger heart, which will require very delicate deliberations.

The source said that in six of the major political crucial states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Maharashtra which sends over 280 MPs in the Lok Sabha, talks need to be balanced.

In most of these states, the Opposition parties, especially the regional parties have their strong presence where the Congress is one of the main rival party, the source pointed out adding that now for the grand old party to come together as one, even if for a higher purpose, will not be an easy task.

The source citing the example said that the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led by former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has strong presence in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 Lok Sabha MPs.

In 2019, the SP had an alliance with Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and it managed to win five seats.

Akhilesh Yadav has now ditched the BSP and joined hands with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)-led by Jayant Chaudhary, son of former Union Minister Ajit Singh ahead of the last year assembly polls, despite the RLD not having a single Lok Sabha MP.

“So making them agree for the seats in the state would not be an easy task for the grand old party, which could win only one seat from the state in 2019, where even former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi lost in the polls,” the source said. Similar is the condition in Bihar, where the Congress is part of the Mahagatbandhan (Grand Alliance) with strong regional parties like Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal-United.

Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats. In 2019 general elections, NDA had won 39 parliamentary seats while Congress won a single seat and RJD none. The JD-U which was part of the NDAS alliance had won 16 seats.

However, Nitish Kumar once again ditching the NDA and joined the Grand Alliance which has given a much needed boost to the alliance partners, where the Congress is eager to contest on at least 10 seats.

Source said that discussing seat sharing with Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar will not be a cakewalk for the Congress as both of them are very hard negotiators.

Also, Congress may face tough time during negotiations in Delhi and Punjab. The Congress and the AAP both scored a nil in the national capital in 2019 polls while BJP won all seven seats.

Source said that several Congress leaders including former union minister Ajay Maken, former three time chief minister Sheila Dikshit’s son and former MP Sandeep Dikshit have already made clear to the party leadership of having no alliance with the AAP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

“Kharge had taken the views of the Delhi leaders last month. And in view of the party’s support to AAP government over the Centre’s ordinance row has also created a gap between the leadership,” the source added.

He further said that the Congress leaders will feel suffocated, where they have been on a losing spree since 2015 assembly elections after the AAP forayed into politics in 2012. Similar is the condition in Punjab, where the Congress was in power till a year ago, but the state leaders are against the party’s wish of having no alliance with the AAP, which decimated it in the 2022 assembly elections.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress managed to win eight out of the 13 seats in the state whereas the BJP alliance had won on four seats and one was won by AAP. Sources in Punjab Congress said that the party is the main opposition in the state even after it was decimated in the last year assembly polls by the AAP.

He said that the party needs to look at Punjab differently and should not be compared with the Delhi unit, where it has gone to third position giving space to BJP.

On the other hand, for all its accommodative spirit, the Congress will want its pound of flesh and demand seats in all the states from its alliance partners in the states of West Bengal and Maharashtra.

Maharashtra sends 48 MPs to Lok Sabha whereas West Bengal has 42 parliamentary seats.